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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 5 March 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 4 – 9 Mar
          Between 25 Feb – 3 Mar: dry weather conditions were observed throughout the island.
          From 25 Feb – 2 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
          0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
26th February
No Rainfall.
27th   February
No Rainfall.
28th February
Up to 5 mm Galle and Matara districtst.
29th February
No Rainfall.
1st March
No Rainfall.
2nd March
Up to 5 mm in Monaragala district.
3rd March
Up to 5 mm in Monaragala and Badulla districts.


Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Mullaitivu districts. Below-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts.

Monthly MonitoringDuring February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of Mannar district. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle, and Kalutara districts.


 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 4th – 10thMar: No Rainfall.
From 11th– 17th Mar: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 4th – 9th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall not have an impact in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: February 18, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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