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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 26 December 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 25- 30 Dec.
• Between 17-23 Dec: up to 160 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ampara district on the 19th
• From 17-23 Dec: up to 36 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
• 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka


Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
17th December
Up to 60 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Monaragala, and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts.
18th December
Up to 70 mm in Monaragala district; up to 60 mm in Badulla and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Matale, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Kegalle and Kandy district.
19th December
Up to 160 mm in Ampara district; up to 140 mm in Polonnaruwa and Matale districts; up to 70 mm in Colombo, Batticaloa, Kegalle, Puttalam, Badulla, Monaragala, and Hambantota districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; 50 mm in Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee and Gampaha districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu district.
20th December
Up to 70 mm in Matale and Ampara districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura and Monaragala districts; up to 50 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Hambantota districts; 30 mm in Puttalam district; and up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts.
21st December
Up to 30 mm in Batticaloa district; and up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
22nd December
Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts; up to 60 mm in Vavuniya district; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts; 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kalutara, Galle, Matale and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
23rd December
Up to 20 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 200-300 mm in Badulla and Ampara districts; up to 150-200 mm in Matale and Monaragala districts; and up to 100-150 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, and Hambantota. Above average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, and Ampara districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; up to 50-100 mm in Batticaloa, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee district; up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura district and northern regions of Puttalam district; and up to 10-25 mm in Mannar district.


Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.


Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 25th – 31stDec: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 45-55 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Anuradhapura district.
From 1st – 7th Jan: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 85-95 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 25th – 30th Dec: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in the entire island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: December 19, 2019

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-December. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have maintained neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral to borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during early winter, returning to ENSO-neutral from late winter to spring and even early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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