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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 14 November 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

 The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in central and
 western regions of the island during 13 – 18 Nov.
 Between 5 – 11 Nov: up to 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in Matara district on the 9th
 From 5 – 11 Nov: up to 10 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island
 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
5th November
Up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Badulla districts.
6th November
No Rainfall.
7th   November
Up to 60 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 50 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts.
8th November
Up to 30 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 20 mm in Batticaloa, Puttalam, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
9th November
Up to 120 mm in Matara district; up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo districts.
10th November
Up to 70 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Gampaha, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
11th November
Up to 50 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Galle, and Monaragla districts.


Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 75-100 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Badulla and Monaragala districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Galle and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-50 mm in rest of the island.


Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.


Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 13th – 19thNov: Total rainfall more than 95 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 75-85 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 65-75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
From 20th– 26th Nov: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 125-135 mm Kurunegala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ratnapura, Galle and Ampara districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 13th – 18th Nov: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.


MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: October 18, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter, and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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