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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 12 September 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts during 11 – 16 Sep.
·  Between 4 – 9 Sep: up to 50 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Monaragala and Badulla districts on the 9th.
·  From 3 – 9 Sep: up to 36 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.
·  1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

 



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On September 4th, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Hambantota and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall.  On the 5th, Kurunegala district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura and Hambantota district up to 20 mm. On the 6th, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Colombo, Kalutara, Matara and Badulla districts up to 5 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 7thand 8th. On the 9th, Monaragala and Badulla districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Galle, Matara and Kandy district up to 10 mm. 

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Kurunegala, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10-25 mm Puttalam, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Matara, Kandy, and Ampara Districts. Above-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm in southern regions of Badulla and Monaragala districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10- 25 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Puttalam, Gampaha and Ratnapura districts


Monthly Monitoring: During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara, and Batticaloa. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts.


Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 11th– 17th Sep: Total rainfall up to 85 mm on Colombo, Ratnapura, and Matara districts; up to 65-75 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala districts.

From 18th – 24th Sep: Total rainfall up to 85 mm on Gampaha, Ratnapura, and Galle districts; up to 65-75 mm in Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Galle, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, and Badulla districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

 11th  of Sep: Not Available

 12th of  Sep: Not Available 


IRI Model Forecast: 

From 11th– 16th Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.


MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall not have an impact in the following 5 days

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: August 19, 2019
The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.
Indian Ocean State
1 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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