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Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 08, August 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 
·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts during 7 – 12 Aug.
·  Between 31 Jul – 5 Aug: up to 50 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Trincomalee district on the 31st.
·  From 30 Jul – 5 Aug: up to 54 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.
·  1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.



Monitoring
Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:On July 31th, Trincomalee district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts received up to 30 mm; and Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On August 1st, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.  On the 2nd, Galle and Matara districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the 3rd. On the 4th, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Hambantota and Matara districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 5th, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle, Matara and Anuradhapura districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and up to 5 mm of rainfall in most parts of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 25-50 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts. Above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Hambantota districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Kalutara, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Galle districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Batticaloa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ratnapura districts; up to 150 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Gampaha and Trincomalee districts.


Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 7th– 13th Aug: Total rainfall up to 55 mm on Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

From 14th – 20th Aug: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Galle and Matra districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Gamapaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

9thAug: Not Available

10thAug: Not Available

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 7th– 12th Aug: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 75 mm in Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 50 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Jaffna districts.


MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days and shall not have an impact on the following 10 days. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: August 8, 2019
The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended. SSTs in the east-central Pacific declined to ENSO-neutral levels during July, and have remained neutral to present. Temperature anomalies of subsurface waters have been near-average. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.
Indian Ocean State

1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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