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Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 11, July 2019

                                                 Highlights                                         

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Badulla district during 10 – 15 Jul.

·  Between 2 – 8 Jul: up to 10 mm of rainfall was recorded in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts on the 2nd.
·  From 2 – 8 Jul: up to 54 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.

·  1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka..



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:On July 2nd, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Matale, Kegalle, Kandy, Colombo and Ratnapura districts up to 5 mm. On the 3rd, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.  No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 4th – 5th. On the 6th, Mannar, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 7th. On the 8th, Badulla and Monaragala district received up to 5 mm of rainfall


Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Kandy, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. Above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Badulla district; and up to 10-25 mm in Monaragala district. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Colombo district; and up to 10-25 mm in Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During May – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and southern parts of the Ratnapura district. Below average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 90 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantoa, Kegalle and Colombo districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 150 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 100 mm in Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Monaragala, Matale and Kandy districts.


Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 10th– 16th Jul: Total rainfall up to 35 mm Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mannar and Mullaitivu districts; up to 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 5-15 mm in rest of the island.

From 17th – 23rd Jul: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Jaffna, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15-25 mm Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
12thJul: Not Available

13thJul: Not Available

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 10th– 15th Jul: Total rainfall up to 100 mm is expected in Badulla district; up to 75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts.



MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: June 19, 2019
SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during May and early June, and temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show intermittent El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 66% chance of El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 50-55% for continuing through fall and winter.
Indian Ocean State

1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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